After back-to-back Team Penske wins, NASCAR heads to ISM Raceway’s one-mile flat track in Phoenix for the fourth race of the season.

Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano are driving streaks of eight top-12 finishes dating back to last season, but both motorists will take a backseat to the recent dominating performances of Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch at Phoenix.

Harvick (9/4) and Busch (7/2) have the shortest odds to win Sunday’s TicketGuardian 500 and won at the track last season. This weekend, even if Harvick were to triumph, he would join an elite group, becoming only the sixth driver in series history to win 10 or more Cup Series races in a single track; joining Richard Petty, Darrell Waltrip, Jimmie Johnson, David Pearson and Dale Earnhardt.

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In three of those last four Phoenix races, Busch has led 359 laps, including 117 in his triumph throughout last year’s playoffs — the first under the new arrangement of the track.

Phoenix’s monitor is similar to Richmond and New Hampshire and it is no surprise both Harvick and Busch have experienced similar success at these racks. Busch has won the fall race in New Hampshire of 2017 and the last two races in Richmond. Harvick won the most-recent race at New Hampshire and has finished in the top five in five of the past six races in Richmond.

But unlike in these previous races, all motorists will be using a new car setup implemented by NASCAR, one different from that which we saw the previous fourteen days in Atlanta and Las Vegas. This season, teams will use a spacer — and no aero ducts — for the very first time. They’ll use a 750-horsepower engine at Phoenix rather than the 550-horsepower engine at Vegas. NASCAR expects to find a car. The new package could close the gap Harvick and Busch have had on the area.

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So much in 2 races with NASCAR rules package, Ford contains five consecutive stage wins and has led 65 percent of their laps. Ford driver Aric Almirola, Harvick’s teammate, will be a sleeper driver to observe this weekend. He was third in New Hampshire’s similar layout last season, fifth at Richmond and fourth last season’s fall race at Phoenix. Almirola is 20/1 to win on Sunday and he is liked by us in a matchup with Kyle Larson in -110.

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Curious to win 2019 TicketGuardian 500 at Phoenix

Odds Supplied by Westgate LV SuperBook

Kevin HARVICK 9/4
Kyle BUSCH 7/2
Brad KESELOWSKI 7/1
Joey LOGANO 8/1
Martin TRUEX JR 10/1
Chase ELLIOTT 10/1
Denny HAMLIN 15/1
Kyle LARSON 20/1
Aric ALMIROLA 20/1
Clint BOWYER 25/1
Erik JONES 25/1
Kurt BUSCH 30/1
Ryan BLANEY 30/1
Jimmie JOHNSON 50/1
Austin DILLON 50/1
Alex BOWMAN 50/1
Ricky STENHOUSE JR 50/1
Daniel SUAREZ 60/1
Ryan NEWMAN 100/1
William BYRON 100/1
Daniel HEMRIC 100/1
Paul MENARD 100/1
Ryan PREECE 200/1
Chris BUESCHER 200/1
Matt DIBENEDETTO 200/1
Darrell WALLACE JR 500/1
Ty DILLON 1000/1
Michael McDOWELL 2000/1
David RAGAN 2000/1
FIELD (others) 500/1

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